Contents
Preface ix
The Reader’s Manual xiii
Introduction: Setting the Scene xv
The 12 ideas to launch your next dream. The Extended Now The West Is Between Dreams The Third Industrial Revolution The 2018 Recession The Flat Society The Twenty-First-Century Growth Industries Mental Illnesses The Store as Theater The New Middle Class A Whole New World in Marketing Measure Happiness, Not GDP Re-create Nature
1 The Material World 1
How rich are we now, and how rich will we be in the 2040s? How Rich Are We Now? How Rich Will We Be in the 2040s, Based on Past Growth Patterns? The Big Nations in the Global Economy Boom and Doom: The Eternal Cycle The Multipolar World of Economic Growth—The Meaning of Globalization Growth Happens in Cities Textiles, Cars, and Electronics—Industries on the Move The New Global Middle Class—The 2 Billion People Market Opportunity Cybersecurity
2 The Values of Nations: “How Are We?” 27
Cultural differences in values, and the changes that are likely to take place. A Sprint Through History and into the Future of Global Values Happiness and Satisfaction with Life The Not-for-Profit Company of the Future The Flat Society—When Hierarchies Flatten New Technology as the Equalizer: The Flat Marketplace The Company Level A Look Inside Our Brain Emotional Market Segmentation Postmaterialistic Consumers The Spiritual Supermarket From Dark to Light The Happiness Market: The Rise and Fall of GDP
3 How We Will Produce and How We Will Consume 65
Trends in the way we produce and consume now and will in the future. How We Will Produce and Consume—The Relationship The Self-Organizing Society The Us-Me Industry The “Handmade” Industry Is Growing The Under-the-Radar Market The E-Commerce Revolution The Shop as Theater The Shop as Factory The One-Person Factory The Augmented Marketplace If the Question Is Marketing, the Answer Is Fan Management
4 How Will We Learn? 93
Learning may become the world’s largest industry. The Limits of Our Knowledge Being Wrong Contaminated Truth Deep AQ Out of the Institutions Open-Source Science The New Nomads The End of the Isolated Mind Mind Enhancement
5 Thinking About Systems 119
The globe as one interconnected system. A System of Systems The Planes of Influence Planetary Boundaries New Economics Small State, Big Society Economics of Bits Milliseconds Matter
6 The Leadership Dilemmas 143
Leadership is about dilemmas, not just about right and wrong. The Loyalty Dilemma The Hierarchy Dilemma The Value Dilemma The Sense-Making Dilemma The Globalization Dilemma The Openness Dilemma The Social Organization Dilemma The Perfect Leader
7 The Authors’ Conclusion 163
The authors present their personal interpretation of the many trends leading us into the future. Eastern Dreams Western Dreams The West Between Dreams The East and the West in Globalization The United States and China: The Different Value Patterns The Values of the Future The Big Five Challenges for the West The Big Five Challenges for the East Three Examples from the Future Change Driven by Consumers Is the West Heading Toward a Real Revolution? The Exciting Future
References 181
Index 187