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"The Number of Children Born Globally is Declining" - Linda Skogrand, Ph.D. | September 2020

Published Date
Author Linda Skogrand

Utah State University
Author of Marriages and Families, McGraw Hill


The global fertility rate has been cut almost in half from an average of 4.7 children in 1950 to 2.4 children in 2017 (GBD 2017 Population and Fertility Collaborators, 2018). The fertility rate is the average number of children a woman gives birth to during her lifetime. This has been a remarkable decline in the number of children being born in the world. We often think about the world being overpopulated with an inability to feed its people. That is currently not the case. There are, in fact, not enough children being born to maintain the current population.

There are differences between economically developed countries and undeveloped countries in fertility rates. The U.S., Europe, South Korea, and Australia all have somewhat low fertility rates, with Europe having a fertility rate of 1.7 which is comparable to other developed countries. In Niger, West Africa, the number of children born to a woman is 7.1. A “baby bust” is when a country’s fertility rate drops below 2.1 which means the population will start decreasing (GBD 2017 Population and Fertility Collaborators, 2018). In 1950, no country in the entire world had a fertility rate below 2.1, and today nearly half of world countries are experiencing this “baby bust.” This decrease in population will happen over time and will probably not be evident for a generation.

The specific reasons why the fertility rate is going down is because there are fewer deaths in childhood, greater access to contraception, and more woman are getting an education and are able to work outside the home (Gallager, 2018, November 9). This may be considered a success story, since each person has more resources within smaller families. Environmental concerns may diminish, which most would say is a good thing.

What will the future bring? It is expected that as countries improve their economic capabilities, there will be even more countries experiencing the “baby bust” (Gallager, 2018, November 9). Grandparents will have fewer or no grandchildren. In these countries, there will be a disproportionate number of older people and younger people will need to support the increased retirement costs of seniors. We are seeing this happening in the United States with the financial needs of retirees creating a burden on the Social Security system.

Questions for Discussion:

  1. What positive things might be happening in the world with decreased fertility rates?
  2. There are times when world events are cyclical. Do you think fertility rates might rise again? If so, what would cause it to happen?
  3. If there are more resources available to families because of decreased fertility rates, can you speculate how families might be using these resources?

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REFERENCES

Gallagher, J. (2018, November 9). ‘Remarkable’ decline in fertility rates. BBC News. Website: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-46118103

GBD Population and Fertility Collaborators (2018, November 10). Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries, 1f950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. Lancet, 392 (1995-2051). Web site: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)32278-5/fulltext

 

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About the Author

Linda Skogrand is an assistant professor and family life extension specialist at Utah State University in Logan, Utah. She began her professional career as a social worker in the inner-city of St. Louis, Missouri, and throughout her career has enjoyed a balance between academic institutions and social service organizations. She has also taught family courses at St. Olaf College in Northfield, Minnesota, for 17 years and was adjunct faculty at the University of Minnesota for several years. She has published articles focusing on values in parent education, the lives of families who have experienced Sudden Infant Death Syndrome, transcendence of traumatic childhoods, spirituality, strong Latino marriages, and debt and marriage. She has co-authored several books including "Surviving and Transcending a Traumatic Childhood: The Dark Thread, Coping with Sudden Infant Death, and Sudden Infant Death: Enduring the Loss." Her current research focuses on strong marriages in the Latino and American Indian cultures and she is currently conducting a national study of what makes “great” marriages with John DeFrain.

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